What are the odds that Will US annex any territory in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.7% and No at 96.3%, on $159K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$159K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $4K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will US annex any territory in 2026?

Live market data

Will US annex any territory in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will US annex any territory in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 3.7% (+0.2 pts in 24h). $159K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

3.7%

No 96.3% · Trade →

24h move

+0.2

pts · 7d -1.6

Volume

$159K

24h $0 · liquidity $4K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

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All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	3.7%	+0.2	-1.6	$159K	3.4¢
No	96.3%	-0.2	+1.6	$159K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 4% risks 4¢ to win 96¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will US annex any territory in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.7% and No at 96.3%, on $159K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $159K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $4K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.