Resolved market scorecard
Will Trump jail Kamala Harris?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 99.9%. $237K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved July 1, 2025
Price 1 day before
100.0%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
99.9%
30 days before: 99.3%
Volume
$237K
1 outcome
Politicskamala harrisTrump PresidencyTrumpprison
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between January 20 (inclusive) and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will Trump jail Kamala Harris?" resolve?
- It resolved No around June 30, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 99.9% one week before and 99.3% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $237K across 1 outcome.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.