What are the odds that Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 10.0% and No at 90.0%, on $60K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$60K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $16K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

Live market data

Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 10.0% (0.0 pts in 24h). $60K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

10.0%

No 90.0% · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$60K

24h $0 · liquidity $16K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Politics Trump middle finger flip off

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	10.0%	0.0	0.0	$60K	2.0¢
No	90.0%	0.0	0.0	$60K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip). This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively. Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count. Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count. AI-generated images or video will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 10% risks 10¢ to win 90¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 10.0% and No at 90.0%, on $60K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $60K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $16K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.