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Home / Markets / Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?
Resolved market scorecard

Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?: result and scorecard

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 43.5%; a week before, 45.5%. $75K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes
resolved February 25, 2026

Price 1 day before

43.5%
Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

45.5%
30 days before: 60.5%

Volume

$75K
1 outcome

PoliticsTrumpVenezuela

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesWON$75K
NoLOST$75K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-0902-0202-25
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 44% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Venezuela. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Venezuela or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy in Venezuela will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S. and Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?" resolve?
It resolved Yes around March 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 43.5% one day before close, 45.5% one week before and 60.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$75K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.