How did "Will the next Pope be Black?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 88.0% one day before close, 83.5% one week before and – one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

Will the next Pope be Black?: result and scorecard

Name: Will the next Pope be Black? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 88.0%; a week before, 83.5%. $270K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved May 8, 2025

Price 1 day before

88.0%

Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

83.5%

30 days before: –

Volume

$270K

1 outcome

Culture New Pope conclave papal

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$270K
No	WON	$270K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 88% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual elected as pope is widely and credibly identified as Black. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Catholic Church, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will the next Pope be Black?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 88.0% one day before close, 83.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $270K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.