Will the Government shutdown end by...?: result and scorecard
Resolved November 15. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 97.1%; a week before, 52.0%. $12.6M traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
PoliticsCongressGov ShutdownTrump
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| November 15 | WON |
| November 30 | WON |
| December 31 | WON |
| January 31 | WON |
| November 7 | LOST |
| October 31 | LOST |
| October 24 | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will the Government shutdown end by...?" resolve?
- It resolved November 15 around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.1% one day before close, 52.0% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $12.6M across 7 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.