Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate. A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own. Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify. If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.