Resolved market scorecard
Will Pope Leo XIV publish his encyclical by May 15?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 78.0%; a week before, 54.0%. $4K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved May 16, 2026
Price 1 day before
78.0%
Market leaned the right way
Price 7 days before
54.0%
30 days before: 58.0%
Volume
$4K
1 outcome
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 78% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV publishes his encyclical by May 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For a letter to qualify it must be commonly understood as an encyclical or declared as an encyclical upon release. Other forms of papal brief, such as a papal bull, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be information from Pope Leo XIV, official information from the Catholic Church, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will Pope Leo XIV publish his encyclical by May 15?" resolve?
- It resolved No around May 15, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 78.0% one day before close, 54.0% one week before and 58.0% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $4K across 1 outcome.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.