What are the odds that Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.8% and No at 96.3%, on $1.9M of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 4, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$1.9M in total and $92 in the last 24 hours, with about $53K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Live market data

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 3.8% (+0.1 pts in 24h). $1.9M has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

3.8%

No 96.3% · Trade →

24h move

+0.1

pts · 7d -5.8

Volume

$1.9M

24h $92 · liquidity $53K

Closes

January 4, 2027

59 days left

Politics Congress Senate

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	3.8%	+0.1	-5.8	$1.9M	0.1¢
No	96.3%	-0.1	+5.8	$1.9M	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 4% risks 4¢ to win 96¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.8% and No at 96.3%, on $1.9M of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 4, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $1.9M in total and $92 in the last 24 hours, with about $53K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.