How did "Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?" resolve?

It resolved No around November 5, 2024.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 88.0% one day before close, 91.5% one week before and 82.5% one month before.

Home / Markets / Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

Resolved market scorecard

Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?: result and scorecard

Name: Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 88.0%; a week before, 91.5%. $4.8M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved November 6, 2024

Price 1 day before

88.0%

Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

91.5%

30 days before: 82.5%

Volume

$4.8M

1 outcome

Politics Kamala deprec USA Election Swing States sweep

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$4.8M
No	WON	$4.8M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 88% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris wins every swing state in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?" resolve?: It resolved No around November 5, 2024.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 88.0% one day before close, 91.5% one week before and 82.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $4.8M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.