Will Ilhan Omar resign by December 31, 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces, on or before the date specified in the market title, 11:59 PM ET, that she has resigned or will resign as United States Representative for Minnesota's 5th congressional district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The deadline applies to the timing of the announcement, not the effective date of the resignation. An announcement made by the deadline that she will resign on a later date, including a date after the specified deadline, will qualify. If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. An announcement that she will not seek re-election, or that she is ending her 2026 campaign, will not qualify on its own. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilhan Omar or the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.