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Home / Markets / Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December
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Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 54.0% (+1.5 pts in 24h). $4K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:20 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

54.0%
No 46.0% · Trade →

24h move

+1.5
pts · 7d +5.5

Volume

$4K
24h $26 · liquidity $2K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

CultureArtmasterworks

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes54.0% +1.5+5.5$4K24.0¢
No46.0% -1.5-5.5$4K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:20 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%06-0208-1911-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Banksy authenticates a new mural or outdoor street artwork between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only works created between market creation and December 31, 2026 will qualify. Artworks created before this market's timeframe but revealed or posted within this market's timeframe will not qualify. A qualifying mural or street artwork must be outdoors on a structure or surface other than a canvas. Paintings on canvases or other surfaces designed for art, such as paper or board, will not qualify. This market will resolve according to confirmation from official Banksy channels including his official Instagram account (@banksy) or official website (banksy.co.uk). Authentication from third-party reporting, gallery attribution, or social media speculation will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 54% risks 54¢ to win 46¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 54.0% and No at 46.0%, on $4K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$4K in total and $26 in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.