Get the brief
LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first
Live market data

Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 5.1% (-1.3 pts in 24h). $5K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

5.1%
No 94.8% · Trade →

24h move

-1.3
pts · 7d -0.5

Volume

$5K
24h $208 · liquidity $26K

Closes

April 19, 2027
164 days left

WorldFrancePoliticsElectionsFrench Election

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes5.1% -1.3-0.5$5K2.5¢
No94.8% +1.3+0.5$5K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-1510-2611-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in France on April 18, 2027, with a second round on May 2, 2027. A second round will be held if no candidate secures a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French government, specifically the Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel) (https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 5% risks 5¢ to win 95¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 5.1% and No at 94.8%, on $5K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on April 19, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$5K in total and $208 in the last 24 hours, with about $26K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Next French Presidential ElectionWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Putin out as President of Russia by...?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Netanyahu out by...?Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.