What are the odds that Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 80.0% and No at 20.0%, on $3K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$3K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $655 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?

Live market data

Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 80.0% (-2.0 pts in 24h). $3K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:20 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

80.0%

No 20.0% · Trade →

24h move

-2.0

pts · 7d -10.5

Volume

$3K

24h $0 · liquidity $655

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Culture masterworks Art

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	80.0%	-2.0	-10.5	$3K	14.0¢
No	20.0%	+2.0	+10.5	$3K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:20 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 80% risks 80¢ to win 20¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 80.0% and No at 20.0%, on $3K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $3K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $655 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.