Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is AfD at 58.5%, ahead of CDU at 13.0%. $69K traded across 7 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
WorldGermanyPoliticsElectionsSaxony-Anhalt
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| AfD | 58.5% | +2.0 |
| CDU | 13.0% | 0.0 |
| BSW | 11.7% | -0.1 |
| Grüne | 8.8% | +0.1 |
| SPD | 7.0% | -0.5 |
| Linke | 5.4% | -0.1 |
| FDP | 1.7% | -2.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Sachsen-Anhalt and the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, AfD is the favorite at 58.5%, followed by CDU at 13.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on September 7, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $69K in total and $166 in the last 24 hours, with about $45K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.