Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Linke at 41.5%, ahead of Grüne at 40.1%. $42K traded across 8 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
WorldBerlinGermanyPoliticsElections
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Linke | 41.5% | -10.0 |
| Grüne | 40.1% | -2.1 |
| SPD | 35.8% | -16.7 |
| CDU | 9.5% | -9.5 |
| AfD | 2.4% | 0.0 |
| BSW | 2.4% | +0.1 |
| FDP | 1.8% | -0.2 |
| FW | 1.3% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Linke is the favorite at 41.5%, followed by Grüne at 40.1%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on September 21, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $42K in total and $357 in the last 24 hours, with about $21K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.