Which 2026 movies will make it into the IMDb Top 250?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Dune: Messiah at 85.5%, ahead of Avengers: Doomsday at 39.0%. $13K traded across 3 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Dune: Messiah | 85.5% | +0.1 |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 39.0% | 0.0 |
| Michael | 5.0% | -42.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:32 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named movie is listed on the IMDb Top 250 Movies list by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie enters the IMDb Top 250 Movies list. The resolution source for this market will be IMDb (https://www.imdb.com/chart/top/). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which 2026 movies will make it into the IMDb Top 250?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Dune: Messiah is the favorite at 85.5%, followed by Avengers: Doomsday at 39.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on April 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $13K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.