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Resolved market scorecard

When will Trump leave China?: result and scorecard

Resolved May 15. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.4%; a week before, –. $1.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

May 15
resolved May 15, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.4%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$1.5M
9 outcomes

Politicsxi jinpingTrump-Xi SummitChinaTrump

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
May 15WON$110K
After May 18LOST$1.3M
May 16LOST$53K
May 14LOST$51K
May 17LOST$12K
Before May 13LOST$8K
May 13LOST$8K
May 18LOST$3K
No visit by May 18LOST$1K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%05-1205-1305-15
May 15After May 18May 16May 14
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "When will Trump leave China?" resolve?
It resolved May 15 around May 20, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.4% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$1.5M across 9 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.