What are the odds that Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.8% and No at 97.3%, on $21K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$21K in total and $92 in the last 24 hours, with about $15K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year

Live market data

Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.8% (-1.3 pts in 24h). $21K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.8%

No 97.3% · Trade →

24h move

-1.3

pts · 7d -4.3

Volume

$21K

24h $92 · liquidity $15K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Politics JD Trump jd vance Trump Cabinet

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	2.8%	-1.3	-4.3	$21K	2.3¢
No	97.3%	+1.3	+4.3	$21K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.8% and No at 97.3%, on $21K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $21K in total and $92 in the last 24 hours, with about $15K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.