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Resolved market scorecard

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved June 30. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 75.9%; a week before, 61.0%. $58.3M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

June 30
resolved June 21, 2026

Price 1 day before

75.9%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

61.0%
30 days before: 64.0%

Volume

$58.3M
35 outcomes

PoliticsIran CeasefireIranTrumpU.S. x Iran

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
June 30WON$7.0M
June 21WON$3.2M
July 31WON$1.4M
April 30LOST$5.5M
May 31LOST$4.7M
May 15LOST$4.3M
May 5LOST$3.4M
April 22LOST$2.8M
June 15LOST$2.6M
June 19LOST$2.3M
April 21LOST$2.3M
April 27LOST$2.1M
April 26LOST$2.0M
April 28LOST$1.8M
April 25LOST$1.6M
April 20LOST$1.6M
April 24LOST$1.5M
April 29LOST$1.4M
April 18LOST$1.2M
April 23LOST$1.1M
June 16LOST$609K
June 10LOST$521K
June 18LOST$494K
April 19LOST$442K
June 7LOST$428K
June 17LOST$409K
April 17LOST$252K
May 22LOST$241K
June 3LOST$238K
June 14LOST$203K
April 16LOST$169K
May 28LOST$149K
June 13LOST$119K
April 15LOST$75K
June 20OPEN$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-1305-1706-21
June 30June 21July 31April 30
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 76% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?" resolve?
It resolved June 30 around April 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 75.9% one day before close, 61.0% one week before and 64.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$58.3M across 35 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.