How did "US government shutdown in 2025?" resolve?

It resolved Yes around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 84.5% one day before close, 75.5% one week before and 46.0% one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

US government shutdown in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: US government shutdown in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 84.5%; a week before, 75.5%. $3.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved October 1, 2025

Price 1 day before

84.5%

Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

75.5%

30 days before: 46.0%

Volume

$3.5M

1 outcome

Politics Congress Trump Presidency house funding

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$3.5M
No	LOST	$3.5M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 85% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "US government shutdown in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 84.5% one day before close, 75.5% one week before and 46.0% one month before.
How much was traded?: $3.5M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.