How did "U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?" resolve?

It resolved Yes around January 31, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 96.5% one day before close, 21.5% one week before and 37.5% one month before.

Home / Markets / U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?

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U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?: result and scorecard

Name: U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 96.5%; a week before, 21.5%. $1.8M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved January 31, 2026

Price 1 day before

96.5%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

21.5%

30 days before: 37.5%

Volume

$1.8M

1 outcome

Politics shutdown US Politics Trump Gov Shutdown

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$1.8M
No	LOST	$1.8M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 97% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around January 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 96.5% one day before close, 21.5% one week before and 37.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $1.8M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.