How did "U.S. Federal judge impeached before July?" resolve?

It resolved No around June 30, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.6% one day before close, 99.0% one week before and 98.3% one month before.

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U.S. Federal judge impeached before July?: result and scorecard

Name: U.S. Federal judge impeached before July? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.6%; a week before, 99.0%. $29K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved July 1, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.6%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.0%

30 days before: 98.3%

Volume

$29K

1 outcome

Politics Trump Trump Presidency DOGE boasberg

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$29K
No	WON	$29K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment against any federal judge, between March 19 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used

Frequently asked questions

How did "U.S. Federal judge impeached before July?" resolve?: It resolved No around June 30, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.6% one day before close, 99.0% one week before and 98.3% one month before.
How much was traded?: $29K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.