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Home / Markets / UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?
Resolved market scorecard

UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved May 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 86.5%; a week before, –. $182K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

May 31
resolved May 14, 2026

Price 1 day before

86.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$182K
3 outcomes

PoliticsEnglandBritainUKWorld

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
May 31WON$57K
June 30WON$18K
February 28LOST$107K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-0503-2605-14
May 31June 30February 28
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 87% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any sitting Cabinet Minister of the United Kingdom as of February 4, 2026 ET, resigns from their position in the cabinet by February 28, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Only an actual resignation will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. If the Prime Minister accepts a letter of resignation from a cabinet minister, or a cabinet minister otherwise formally resigns, this market will resolve to "Yes" immediately, even if the cabinet minister in question agrees to stay for a period of time for any reason (e.g., until a replacement is ready, etc.). If a minister submits a letter of resignation and it is refused, or they otherwise withdraw that letter, it will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If a minister submits a letter of resignation and is subsequently fired from their position, it will still qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?" resolve?
It resolved May 31 around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 86.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$182K across 3 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.