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Home / Markets / UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
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UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 1.6% (0.0 pts in 24h). $30K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

1.6%
No 98.5% · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d -0.1

Volume

$30K
24h $0 · liquidity $17K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

PoliticsUnited KingdomArgentinaFalkland IslandsSovereignty

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes1.6% 0.0-0.1$30K1.1¢
No98.5% 0.0+0.1$30K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%04-2808-0211-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An official announcement from the government of the United Kingdom confirming that sovereignty of any part of the Falkland Islands has been or will be legally and officially transferred to Argentina is required. Negotiations, announcements or claims solely from Argentina, or other actions which do not definitively announce the transfer of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that the United Kingdom and Argentina have agreed to a binding agreement or legal instrument resulting in a defined area of the Falkland Islands coming under the formal sovereignty of Argentina will also qualify, even if the effective date of the sovereignty transfer occurs after the market deadline. The primary resolution source will be official government statements from the United Kingdom and Argentina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 1.6% and No at 98.5%, on $30K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$30K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $17K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.