LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?
Resolved market scorecard

Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?: result and scorecard

Resolved Taiwan Arms Sales Halt. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 0.9%; a week before, 6.0%. $1.7M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Taiwan Arms Sales Halt
resolved May 22, 2026

Price 1 day before

0.9%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

6.0%
30 days before: –

Volume

$1.7M
7 outcomes

PoliticsChinaxi jinpingTrump-Xi SummitTrump

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Taiwan Arms Sales HaltWON$107K
U.S.-China AI Safety ChannelWON$49K
US-China Board of TradeWON$27K
Tariff ReductionLOST$1.4M
New SanctionsLOST$54K
AI Export Restrictions ReliefLOST$39K
Detained Americans ReleaseLOST$11K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%05-1205-1805-25
Taiwan Arms Sales HaltU.S.-China AI Safety ChannelUS-China Board of TradeTariff Reduction
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 1% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on China between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs reductions specifically announced in relation to China, goods from China, or a specific set of countries including China will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market’s resolution. Only definitive announcements qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Tariff reductions, removals, or suspensions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariff reduction, removal, or suspension goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?" resolve?
It resolved Taiwan Arms Sales Halt around May 22, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 0.9% one day before close, 6.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$1.7M across 7 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.