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Home / Markets / SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
Resolved market scorecard

SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?: result and scorecard

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 71.0%; a week before, –. $105K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes
resolved February 3, 2026

Price 1 day before

71.0%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$105K
1 outcome

TechClimate & ScienceEconomyBusinessScience

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesWON$105K
NoLOST$105K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-3002-0102-03
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 71% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by SpaceX or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?" resolve?
It resolved Yes around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 71.0% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$105K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.