Senate MOV Ranking: Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the order of the margins of victory in the 2026 United States Senate elections in Texas, Ohio (special election), Kansas, and Alaska, ranked from lowest (closest) to highest. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant round of the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two or more of these states have identical margins of victory, the tie will be broken alphabetically by state name, with the state that comes first alphabetically treated as having the smaller margin of victory. This market will resolve based on the official vote counts once the counts have been made official. If a recount is initiated before any applicable vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.