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JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 59.5%, ahead of March 31, 2027 at 21.0%. $7K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

59.5%
June 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

+13.0
pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$7K
24h $2K · liquidity $9K

Closes

July 1, 2027
237 days left

TrumpPoliticsElectionsPresidentUS Election

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
June 30, 202759.5% +13.00.0$4K1.0¢
March 31, 202721.0% +4.50.0$4K2.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-0311-0411-06
June 30, 2027March 31, 2027

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if J.D. Vance officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by J.D. Vance will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by J.D. Vance (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30, 2027 at 60% risks 60¢ to win 41¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 59.5%, followed by March 31, 2027 at 21.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$7K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $9K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.