What are the odds that Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 12.5% and No at 87.5%, on $161K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$161K in total and $510 in the last 24 hours, with about $902 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 202

Live market data

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 12.5% (+1.5 pts in 24h). $161K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:09 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

12.5%

No 87.5% · Trade →

24h move

+1.5

pts · 7d +2.5

Volume

$161K

24h $510 · liquidity $902

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Politics World Canada Canadian Election Pierre

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	12.5%	+1.5	+2.5	$161K	7.0¢
No	87.5%	-1.5	-2.5	$161K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:09 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 13% risks 13¢ to win 88¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 12.5% and No at 87.5%, on $161K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $161K in total and $510 in the last 24 hours, with about $902 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.