Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 10.6%, ahead of Jimmy Lai at 10.5%. $276K traded across 17 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
WorldnobelAwardsPoliticsGeopolitics
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 10.6% | 0.0 |
| Jimmy Lai | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 9.5% | -0.5 |
| Donald Trump | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Pope Leo XIV | 8.2% | 0.0 |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 8.0% | +2.5 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 7.8% | -0.1 |
| UNRWA | 7.5% | +0.3 |
| International Criminal Court | 6.4% | +0.1 |
| Melania Trump | 5.9% | +0.3 |
| Julian Assange | 5.5% | -0.4 |
| International Court of Justice | 4.6% | +0.4 |
| António Guterres | 3.4% | +0.3 |
| Doctors Without Borders | 3.2% | 0.0 |
| Elon Musk | 2.9% | 0.0 |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.9% | -0.4 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms is the favorite at 10.6%, followed by Jimmy Lai at 10.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on April 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $276K in total and $5K in the last 24 hours, with about $770K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.