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Home / Markets / Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
Live market data

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 66.5%, ahead of Person A at 50.0%. $138K traded across 66 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

66.5%
No Next Chancellor before 2028 · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d +3.0

Volume

$138K
24h $156 · liquidity $339K

Closes

January 1, 2028
421 days left

WorldGermanyPoliticsElectionsMain Election

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
No Next Chancellor before 202866.5% 0.0+3.0$111K1.0¢
Person A50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person B50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person C50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person D50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person E50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person F50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person G50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person H50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person I50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person J50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person K50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person L50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person M50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person N50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person O50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person P50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person Q50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person R50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person S50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person T50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person U50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person V50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person W50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person X50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person Y50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person Z50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AA50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AB50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AC50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AD50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AE50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AF50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AG50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AH50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AI50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AJ50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AK50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AL50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AM50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AN50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AO50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AP50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AQ50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AR50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AS50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AT50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AU50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AV50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AW50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AX50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AY50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AZ50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Other50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Hendrik Wüst13.5% 0.00.0$9K1.0¢
Markus Söder10.5% -0.1+3.5$5K1.1¢
Carsten Linnemann4.3% +3.6+3.8$2K7.9¢
Boris Pistorius3.7% -0.1-1.3$2K4.4¢
Alice Weidel3.6% +0.2-0.7$3K4.0¢
Lars Klingbeil0.9% -0.10.0$1K1.4¢
Felix Banaszak0.5% -0.10.0$1K0.7¢
Jens Spahn0.1% 0.00.0$5290.1¢
Tino Chrupalla0.1% 0.00.0$6530.1¢
Katharina Dröge0.1% 0.00.0$7280.1¢
Heidi Reichinnek0.1% 0.00.0$8740.1¢
Sahra Wagenknecht0.1% 0.00.0$7840.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%09-1610-1111-06
No Next Chancellor before 2028

Market rules and resolution

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 67% risks 67¢ to win 34¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?"?
As of November 6, 2026, No Next Chancellor before 2028 is the favorite at 66.5%, followed by Person A at 50.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$138K in total and $156 in the last 24 hours, with about $339K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.