Resolved market scorecard
New Pope in 2025?: result and scorecard
Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 99.7%. $2.9M traded in total.
Result
Yes
resolved May 8, 2025
Price 1 day before
99.7%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
99.7%
30 days before: 39.5%
Volume
$2.9M
1 outcome
Culturecathloicismfranciscatholicchurch
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | WON |
| No | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Pope after Pope Francis is announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Catholic Church, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "New Pope in 2025?" resolve?
- It resolved Yes around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and 39.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $2.9M across 1 outcome.
Related on BetG8
Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?Elon Musk # tweets November 5 - November 7, 2026?Next James Bond actor?Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?Highest grossing movie in 2026?Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.