Netanyahu out before the next Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel before a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon takes place. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel before a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon takes place, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon takes place before Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither Benjamin Netanyahu ceasing to be Prime Minister of Israel nor a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Benjamin Netanyahu will be considered to have ceased to be Prime Minister of Israel if he ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time after market creation. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu’s resignation/removal will count as him ceasing to be Prime Minister as of the time of the announcement, regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution sources for whether Benjamin Netanyahu has ceased to be Prime Minister of Israel will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. A diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon will be considered to have taken place if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon after market creation. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in