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Home / Markets / Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
Resolved market scorecard

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: result and scorecard

Resolved AfD. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 47.5%; a week before, 82.5%. $2.4M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

AfD
resolved September 21, 2026

Price 1 day before

47.5%
Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

82.5%
30 days before: 87.5%

Volume

$2.4M
24 outcomes

WorldElectionsGlobal ElectionsWorld ElectionsPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
AfDWON$1.2M
SPDLOST$882K
FWLOST$116K
FDPLOST$77K
GrüneLOST$72K
CDULOST$46K
LinkeLOST$30K
BSWLOST$22K
Party AOPEN$0
Party BOPEN$0
Party COPEN$0
Party DOPEN$0
Party EOPEN$0
Party FOPEN$0
Party GOPEN$0
Party HOPEN$0
Party IOPEN$0
Party JOPEN$0
Party KOPEN$0
Party LOPEN$0
Party MOPEN$0
Party NOPEN$0
Party OOPEN$0
OtherOPEN$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-1206-0209-21
AfDSPDFWFDP
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 48% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner" resolve?
It resolved AfD around September 20, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 47.5% one day before close, 82.5% one week before and 87.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$2.4M across 24 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.