Venezuela leader end of 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Nicolás Maduro at 91.5%, ahead of Delcy Rodríguez at 7.5%. $99.5M traded across 16 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
Trump-MachadoRewards 20, 4.5, 50VenezuelaTrumpPolitics
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 91.5% | -0.1 |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Edmundo González | 0.8% | +0.6 |
| María Corina Machado | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| No Head of State | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| Marco Rubio | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Frank Donovan | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Donald Trump | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Evan Pettus | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Dan Caine | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Richard Grenell | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Venezuela leader end of 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Nicolás Maduro is the favorite at 91.5%, followed by Delcy Rodríguez at 7.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $99.5M in total and $102K in the last 24 hours, with about $2.6M of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.