Israel tourism plunges below 40K by January?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of tourist arrivals to Israel is below 40,000 for any of the following months: November 2026, December 2026, or January 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Each month will be considered on its own; figures will not be summed or averaged across months. Subject to the erroneous data provision below, this market will resolve to "Yes" upon publication of a qualifying figure below 40,000 for any of the listed months, including a revised figure, without waiting for later months. Otherwise, this market will resolve upon publication of the January 2027 figure, expected in early February 2027. Tourist arrivals refers to the number of tourist entries to Israel in a given month as published by the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), i.e. entries by visitors (persons entering Israel on a tourist visa or a temporary-resident visa) who leave Israel on a date different from their date of entry, as recorded by Israeli border control. Day visitors, including cruise passengers who enter Israel for day visits and sleep on the ship, are not counted. Israeli emigrants arriving for visits, which the CBS reports separately, are not counted. Months are calendar months as used by the CBS for its monthly visitor arrival statistics. The figure used will be the headline (original, non-seasonally adjusted) number of tourist entries. This headline figure will govern regardless of any change in the definitions, classifications, data sources, or methodology underlying it. In the CBS Hebrew release, this figure is stated in the headline as "אלף כניסות תיירים" (thousand tourist entries). For example, the release for September 2026 (https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/DocLib/2026/309/28_26_309b.pdf) reports "135.5 אלף כניסות תיירים", i.e. 135,500 tourist entries. This figure is distinct from the total number of visitor entries ("כניסות מבקרים"), which also includes day visitors. For each month, the figure published by the source used for resolution, including any revision or correction of that figure, will be considered if it is published no later than the first publication of the January 2027 figure by that source, including revisions published in the same release. Except as provided in the erroneous data provision below, revisions, corrections or rebasing published after that point will not be considered, regardless of the direction in which they move th