Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Likud" if Likud is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election and Yashar is not. This market will resolve to "Yashar" if Yashar is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election and Likud is not. If both parties or neither party are included in that government, or if no government is formed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.