Israel Election: Arab party and Likud in coalition?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset took place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Likud and at least one Arab party are both included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An Arab party is defined as a political party that primarily serves to represent the interests of Israeli Arabs or Palestinians. A Jewish or nonsectarian political party which does not primarily represent the interests of Arabs will not qualify, regardless of whether it runs Arab candidates or courts Arab voters. Qualifying examples include Ra'am (United Arab List) and the Joint List. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.