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Resolved market scorecard

Ireland Presidential Election: result and scorecard

Resolved Catherine Connolly. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.3%; a week before, 89.0%. $152.0M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Catherine Connolly
resolved October 25, 2025

Price 1 day before

98.3%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

89.0%
30 days before: 25.5%

Volume

$152.0M
29 outcomes

PoliticsGlobal ElectionsWorld ElectionsIrelandWorld

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Catherine ConnollyWON$4.5M
Frances FitzgeraldLOST$115.1M
Peter CaseyLOST$9.2M
Emily O'ReillyLOST$8.6M
Conor McGregorLOST$4.3M
Heather HumphreysLOST$2.6M
Jim GavinLOST$2.0M
Mairead McGuinnessLOST$530K
Michael McDowellLOST$466K
Cynthia Ní MhurchúLOST$447K
Frances BlackLOST$431K
Bertie AhernLOST$422K
Seán KellyLOST$407K
Jarlath BurnsLOST$402K
Maria SteenLOST$348K
Michelle O’NeillLOST$339K
Barry AndrewsLOST$330K
Fergus FinlayLOST$308K
Micheal MartinLOST$269K
Mary Lou McDonaldLOST$240K
Bob GeldofLOST$240K
John FinucaneLOST$215K
Nick DelehantyLOST$200K
Billy KelleherLOST$198K
Person JLOST$0
Person KLOST$0
Person LLOST$0
Person MLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%03-2107-0810-25
Catherine ConnollyFrances FitzgeraldPeter CaseyEmily O'Reilly
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 98% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

The 2025 Irish presidential election must take place by Tuesday, 11 November 2025. This market will resolve to the individual who wins the next Irish presidential election. If the result of this election isn't known by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market group will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the he Irish Government, specifically the Electoral Commission (An Coimisiún Toghcháin (see: https://www.electoralcommission.ie/).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Ireland Presidential Election" resolve?
It resolved Catherine Connolly around October 24, 2025.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.3% one day before close, 89.0% one week before and 25.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$152.0M across 29 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.