What will gas hit by end of November?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is ↓ $4.10 at 99.7%, ahead of ↓ $4.05 at 97.9%. $42K traded across 13 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| ↓ $4.10 | 99.7% | +0.4 |
| ↓ $4.05 | 97.9% | +0.4 |
| ↓ $4.00 | 97.2% | +16.2 |
| ↓ $3.95 | 82.5% | +4.5 |
| ↓ $3.85 | 59.0% | +9.5 |
| ↑ $4.20 | 46.0% | -1.5 |
| ↓ $3.90 | 44.5% | -4.0 |
| ↑ $4.15 | 29.0% | -21.0 |
| ↑ $4.25 | 18.5% | -7.5 |
| ↑ $4.40 | 11.0% | -16.5 |
| ↑ $4.35 | 9.5% | -13.5 |
| ↑ $4.45 | 8.5% | -3.5 |
| ↑ $4.30 | 6.0% | -8.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for options marked ↑ (High), or equal to or below the specified price for options marked ↓ (Low), for any date from November 1, 2026 through November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified month, this market will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or below the specified price for any date from November 1, 2026 through November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be use
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will gas hit by end of November?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, ↓ $4.10 is the favorite at 99.7%, followed by ↓ $4.05 at 97.9%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 30, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $42K in total and $6K in the last 24 hours, with about $137K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.