Resolved market scorecard
Gavin Newsom out as Governor before April?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 99.6%. $720K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved April 1, 2025
Price 1 day before
99.7%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
99.6%
30 days before: 98.0%
Volume
$720K
1 outcome
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is no longer serving as Governor of California for any length of time between January 8 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Gavin Newsom's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Gavin Newsom out as Governor before April?" resolve?
- It resolved No around March 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 99.6% one week before and 98.0% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $720K across 1 outcome.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.