What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and 98.9% one month before.

Home / Markets / Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

Resolved market scorecard

Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.7%. $58K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.7%

30 days before: 98.9%

Volume

$58K

1 outcome

Politics California palisades fire Los Angeles

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$58K
No	WON	$58K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is no longer serving as Governor of California for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Gavin Newsom's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and 98.9% one month before.
How much was traded?: $58K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.