What are the odds that Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026? ?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 13.5% and No at 86.5%, on $4K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$4K in total and $25 in the last 24 hours, with about $371 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2

Live market data

Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026? : live odds and probabilities

Name: Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 13.5% (+1.5 pts in 24h). $4K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

13.5%

No 86.5% · Trade →

24h move

+1.5

pts · 7d -5.5

Volume

$4K

24h $25 · liquidity $371

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Politics California gavin newsom

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	13.5%	+1.5	-5.5	$4K	9.0¢
No	86.5%	-1.5	+5.5	$4K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of either Governor Gavin Newsom or Jennifer Siebel Newsom between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 14% risks 14¢ to win 87¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026? ?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 13.5% and No at 86.5%, on $4K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $4K in total and $25 in the last 24 hours, with about $371 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.