Get the brief
LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Live market data

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31, 2027 at 37.5%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 20.5%. $3.1M traded across 5 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

37.5%
December 31, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

+1.5
pts · 7d -5.0

Volume

$3.1M
24h $3K · liquidity $305K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

PoliticsGermanyWorld

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 31, 202737.5% +1.5-5.0$16K1.0¢
June 30, 202720.5% +0.5-10.0$11K1.0¢
March 31, 20275.5% -0.4-8.6$54K0.1¢
December 31, 20263.1% -0.2-3.4$2.4M0.2¢
November 30, 20261.1% 0.0-0.6$48K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-0605-0711-06
December 31, 2027June 30, 2027March 31, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2027 at 38% risks 38¢ to win 63¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 37.5%, followed by June 30, 2027 at 20.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$3.1M in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $305K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Presidential Election Winner 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Alaska Senate Election WinnerNext French Presidential ElectionMississippi Senate Election WinnerAll live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.