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Resolved market scorecard

Epstein blackmail evidence released by...? : result and scorecard

Resolved December 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 3.5%. $11.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

December 31
resolved December 28, 2025

Price 1 day before

100.0%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

3.5%
30 days before: 9.5%

Volume

$11.6M
2 outcomes

PoliticsEpstein

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
December 31WON$9.3M
March 31WON$2.3M

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%11-2112-2601-31
December 31March 31
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed any individual are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons. Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following: - A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group. - A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group. - A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail. General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify. Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Epstein blackmail evidence released by...? " resolve?
It resolved December 31 around March 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 3.5% one week before and 9.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$11.6M across 2 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.