How did "Elon Musk # of tweets August 8-15?" resolve?

It resolved 470+ around August 15, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 80.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / Elon Musk # of tweets August 8-15?

Resolved market scorecard

Elon Musk # of tweets August 8-15?: result and scorecard

Name: Elon Musk # of tweets August 8-15? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved 470+. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 80.5%; a week before, –. $5.3M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

470+

resolved August 15, 2025

Price 1 day before

80.5%

Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

–

30 days before: –

Volume

$5.3M

19 outcomes

Elon Musk Tweet Markets Politics Culture

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
470+	WON	$695K
455–469	LOST	$543K
440–454	LOST	$506K
<215	LOST	$365K
395–409	LOST	$321K
425–439	LOST	$317K
275–289	LOST	$315K
410–424	LOST	$312K
380–394	LOST	$230K
365–379	LOST	$215K
290–304	LOST	$206K
350–364	LOST	$203K
320–334	LOST	$198K
215–229	LOST	$175K
305–319	LOST	$169K
335–349	LOST	$161K
260–274	LOST	$135K
230–244	LOST	$130K
245–259	LOST	$106K

Price history to resolution

470+455–469440–454<215

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 80% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and August 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Elon Musk # of tweets August 8-15?" resolve?: It resolved 470+ around August 15, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 80.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $5.3M across 19 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.