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Home / Markets / How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is <5 at 77.0%, ahead of 5-6 at 20.0%. $534K traded across 8 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

77.0%
<5 · Trade →

24h move

-2.5
pts · 7d +16.5

Volume

$534K
24h $3K · liquidity $37K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

SpaceXSpaceScienceElon MuskRecurring

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
<577.0% -2.5+16.5$108K12.0¢
5-620.0% 0.0-8.0$122K14.0¢
9-100.5% +0.1-0.1$67K0.5¢
7-80.1% -0.2-0.4$166K0.1¢
11-120.1% -0.1-0.1$12K0.1¢
13-140.1% 0.00.0$11K0.1¢
15-160.1% 0.00.0$32K0.1¢
>160.1% -0.3-0.4$16K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%12-1205-2511-06
<55-69-107-8

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying <5 at 77% risks 77¢ to win 23¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?"?
As of November 6, 2026, <5 is the favorite at 77.0%, followed by 5-6 at 20.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$534K in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $37K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.