What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 33.1% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / Elon Musk # of tweets August 1-8? (Higher Brackets)

Resolved market scorecard

Elon Musk # of tweets August 1-8? (Higher Brackets): result and scorecard

Name: Elon Musk # of tweets August 1-8? (Higher Brackets) prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved 360–374. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 33.1%; a week before, –. $4.4M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

360–374

resolved August 8, 2025

Price 1 day before

33.1%

Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

–

30 days before: –

Volume

$4.4M

19 outcomes

Elon Musk Culture Politics Tweet Markets

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
360–374	WON	$436K
345–359	LOST	$471K
375–389	LOST	$400K
390–404	LOST	$358K
405–419	LOST	$332K
420–434	LOST	$298K
300–314	LOST	$222K
270–284	LOST	$217K
435–449	LOST	$208K
285–299	LOST	$206K
315–329	LOST	$195K
330–344	LOST	$184K
450–464	LOST	$164K
510+	LOST	$157K
495–509	LOST	$138K
255–269	LOST	$123K
465–479	LOST	$120K
480–494	LOST	$118K
<255	LOST	$44K

Price history to resolution

360–374345–359375–389390–404

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 33% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and August 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Elon Musk # of tweets August 1-8? (Higher Brackets)" resolve?: It resolved 360–374 around August 8, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 33.1% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $4.4M across 19 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.