Dem sweep & Democrat wins 2028 presidency?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the Democratic Party’s candidate wins the 2028 United States presidential election. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Dem wins 2028" or "Dem loses 2028"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". 2028 presidential election: This component is "Dem wins 2028" if the candidate of the Democratic Party is elected President of the United States in the 2028 United States presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Otherwise, it is "Dem loses 2028". This component will be determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029), this component will be determined by the party of the candidate who is inaugurated. House and Senate control: A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determ